Retail sales unlikely to grow: Access Economics

The latest report by Access Economics has painted a bleak picture for retailers, with the forecaster predicting retail sales will be unlikely to improve until early 2011.

Retailers will be in for a tough 18 months with unemployment levels due to rise and the gloss from the Government stimulus payments wears off.

Access is forecasting real retail sales growth of 1.3 percent in 2008/09, before declining 0.3 percent in 2009/10 and then growing just 0.1 percent in 2010/11.

Access director David Rumbens said we won’t see a retail recovery until 2011 when unemployment peaks and starts to turn down, interest rates remain low and a strong housing recovery emerges.

“Interest rates remain at very supportive levels and could go lower, but a sharply rising unemployment rate, weak consumer confidence, and house prices in trouble amid weak debt levels, will certainly dampen the retail sales outlook.”

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