Climate change and the export environment
The Export Environment
With two-thirds of Australia’s agricultural production exported, climate change will hit this sector hard. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Research has estimated that the effects of climate change will push sugar exports down 79 percent by 2050 and beef and dairy exports by one third.
Fiona Wain, chief executive officer of Environment Business Australia, describes climate change as the biggest threat to economies and the survival of the planet. She says it is vital to act now because the environment is our fundamental capital. “If food productivity breaks down, if food supplies break down, millions of people will not sit around waiting to starve: they will try and mobilise and go somewhere where they think there is food and water.”
She adds: “It is entirely foreseeable, with the data that we have, that the entire system could collapse. What we’ve got to do to avoid that collapse. There is tremendous … export potential, wealth generation and wealth preservation potential in acting now. The longer we stall and delay activity, the less opportunity there will be and the worse the outcomes are likely to be.”
Australia needs to reduce carbon in the atmosphere, curb future emissions and seize wealth generation opportunity in the process. There is a $1.3 trillion global marketplace for environmental goods and services, with $100 billion in the carbon trading market alone, according to Wain. “If Australia can demonstrate that an energy intensive economy can retain and grow its prosperity, then we have a good opportunity to help other countries, particularly the countries in our region, with smarter technology, more energy efficiency and better infrastructure,” she says.
While acknowledging that some Australian exports will dwindle, she sees fresh opportunities for exporters of clean energy technologies and high quality, sustainable goods and services. Implementing the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme will “do our exports a lot of good, because in fairly rapid order, we’re going to see carbon pollution as a World Trade Organisation issue.”
She forecasts “a new set of standards worldwide that will have impacts on entire supply chains from materials selection, manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, retailing.”
Wain also notes that many senior scientists, including leading NASA climate scientist Dr James Hansen, argue that 450ppm of carbon is too high and that “we have to get below 350ppm a lot earlier than 2050″. Her organisation has prepared a report on how Australia could achieve 61 percent carbon cuts by 2020, largely by switching from coal to gas, wind, solar thermal, geothermal and wave power.
Instead of shipping out raw ore, more of the smelting, refining and processing could be done in Australia. “By 2030 Australia could be one of a handful of global mega-clean energy parks, energy hubs, that are value-adding to our resources through minerals processing and then manufacturing with totally clean energy and then exporting that out to the world,” says Wain.
She also predicts a growing market for organic produce and crops produced using low till methods. Equally, Australia could grow and market new generation biofuels, produced from fast-growing biomass like algae using carbon capture methods.
Already some of Australia’s trading partners are restricting or taxing carbon-polluting imports. Wain points out that Europe is seeking low carbon commodities and low carbon food and wine. Japan has slapped a carbon tax on coal imports. As a result, Australian companies should ensure that “exports of anything that is polluting, until it’s phased out, have carbon credits stapled to them.” For example, coal companies might invest in reforestation in Australia or in a developing country.
For exporters who have not yet introduced green practices, remaining competitive in the new carbon conscious markets is likely to involve a steep learning curve.
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- Small businesses to access Climate Change Action Fund
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- 400 jobs in first Climate Ready round
- Talk and action for carbon at new expo
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